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Derby vs Brentford — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Brentford
Brentford
M. Mount 28'
D. Nugent 21'
H. Wilson 14'
H. Dalsgaard 1'
9/22/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Derby35%
×Draw28%
Brentford37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.17
Brentford
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 70 away

creates per match

Derby
1.23
Brentford
1.41

allows per match

Derby
0.99
Brentford
1.10

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
63%
Derby or Brentford
72%
Draw or Brentford
65%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
15%
Brentford wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
69%
Derby 2+ goals
33%
Derby 3+ goals
11%
Brentford 1+ goals
70%
Brentford 2+ goals
34%
Brentford 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
49%
Brentford (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.99 · 141 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.23 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brentford attack 1.41 + Derby defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more
35%
level
28%
Brentford scores more
37%

Brentford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. MountDerbyDerby · M
7.7

Match Events

1'
H. Dalsgaard↳ S. Benrahma
14'
H. Wilson↳ C. Bryson
21'
D. Nugent↳ B. Johnson
27'
Chris Mepham
28'
M. Mount
64'
Craig Bryson
64'
Sergi Canós← S. Benrahma
65'
K. Mokotjo← J. McEachran
74'
F. Jozefzoon← M. Bennett
76'
J. Marriott← D. Nugent
76'
N. Yennaris← L. MacLeod
80'
Mason Mount
83'
S. Malone← H. Wilson

Possession

40%Derby

Shots

16Derby

Pass accuracy

48%Derby

Statistics

DerbyBrentford
Overview
40%Possession60%
16Total Shots10
3Corners9
9Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots10
6On Target2
8Off Target4
2Blocked4
6Inside Box5
10Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
365Total Passes518
274Accurate Passes418
75%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Championship: Derby 3–1 Brentford

Derby beat Brentford 3-1 in Championship on September 22, 2018.

Goals: H. Dalsgaard (1'), H. Wilson (14'), D. Nugent (21'), M. Mount (28').

Brentford controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.