Brentford 3–0 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

Brentford

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Derby

O. Watkins 45', 18'

B. Mbeumo 17'

8/31/2019

Championship · Round 6Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brentford56%

×Draw23%

Derby20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.97

Brentford

1.78

Derby

0.97

Brentford creates 84% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 142 away

1.93

creates per match

1.07

0.87

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Brentford

1.93

Derby

1.07

allows per match

Brentford

0.87

Derby

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

80%

Brentford or Derby

77%

Draw or Derby

44%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

32%

Derby wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

83%

Brentford 2+ goals

53%

Brentford 3+ goals

26%

Derby 1+ goals

62%

Derby 2+ goals

25%

Derby 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

73%

Derby (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Derby away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.93 + Derby defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78

Derby attack 1.07 + Brentford defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brentford scores more

56%

level

23%

Derby scores more

20%

Brentford at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Watkins

Brentford · F

8.4

Match Events

17'

B. Mbeumo

18'

O. Watkins↳ B. Mbeumo

45'

Martyn Waghorn

45'

O. Watkins

46'

D. Holmes← L. Buchanan

52'

M. Bennett← K. Dowell

73'

K. Mokotjo← M. Jensen

76'

J. Paterson← J. Marriott

78'

J. Žambůrek← B. Mbeumo

83'

J. Valencia← S. Benrahma

84'

Tom Lawrence

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordDerby

Overview

49%Possession51%

22Total Shots5

6Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots5

8On Target0

7Off Target3

7Blocked2

14Inside Box1

8Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

473Total Passes479

372Accurate Passes375

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0