Derby vs Aston Villa — Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
Derby32%
Aston Villa40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Aston Villa creates 14% more chances
Season form · 141 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Derby ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Derby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.99 · 141 matches
Aston Villa away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Derby attack 1.23 + Aston Villa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11
Aston Villa attack 1.54 + Derby defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Aston Villa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Coventry
Ipswich
Millwall
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Hull City
WrexhamDerby
Norwich
Birmingham
Swansea
Bristol City
Sheffield Utd
Preston
QPR
Watford
Stoke City
Portsmouth
West Brom
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford United
Sheffield WednesdayIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Derby host Aston Villa on Saturday, 10 November 2018 at 15:00. The match is part of the Championship 2018/2019 season.
Championship: Derby 0–3 Aston Villa
Aston Villa beat Derby 3-0 in Championship on November 10, 2018.
Goals: J. McGinn (74'), T. Abraham (78'), C. Hourihane (84').
Aston Villa controlled possession (54%) and registered 21 shots to 11.
The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.