Derby County W 4–1 Stockport County W

Derby County W

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stockport County W

11/23/2025

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundDon Amott Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Derby County W30%

×Draw18%

Stockport County W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derby County WExpected goals in this matchStockport County W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

2.87

Derby County W

2.19

Stockport County W

2.87

Stockport County W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

2.88

2.86

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Derby County W

2.00

Stockport County W

2.88

allows per match

Derby County W

2.86

Stockport County W

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby County W+0.00on par

Stockport County W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby County W ↓

Stockport County W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Derby County W or draw

48%

Derby County W or Stockport County W

82%

Draw or Stockport County W

70%

Winning margin

Derby County W wins by 2+

16%

Stockport County W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Derby County W 1+ goals

89%

Derby County W 2+ goals

64%

Derby County W 3+ goals

37%

Stockport County W 1+ goals

94%

Stockport County W 2+ goals

77%

Stockport County W 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Derby County W (draw refunded)

37%

Stockport County W (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Derby County W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Stockport County W away — creates 2.88, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Derby County W attack 2.00 + Stockport County W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Stockport County W attack 2.88 + Derby County W defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Derby County W scores more

30%

level

18%

Stockport County W scores more

52%

Stockport County W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stockport County W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff