Derby County W 2–3 Nottingham Forest W

Derby County W

2 – 3

Nottingham Forest W

12/1/2019

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundDon Amott Leisure Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Derby County W15%

×Draw14%

Nottingham Forest W71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derby County WExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

3.39

Derby County W

1.57

Nottingham Forest W

3.39

Nottingham Forest W creates 116% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

3.92

2.86

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Derby County W

2.00

Nottingham Forest W

3.92

allows per match

Derby County W

2.86

Nottingham Forest W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby County W+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby County W ↓

Nottingham Forest W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Derby County W or draw

29%

Derby County W or Nottingham Forest W

86%

Draw or Nottingham Forest W

85%

Winning margin

Derby County W wins by 2+

Nottingham Forest W wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Derby County W 1+ goals

79%

Derby County W 2+ goals

46%

Derby County W 3+ goals

21%

Nottingham Forest W 1+ goals

96%

Nottingham Forest W 2+ goals

84%

Nottingham Forest W 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Derby County W (draw refunded)

17%

Nottingham Forest W (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Derby County W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Nottingham Forest W away — creates 3.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Derby County W attack 2.00 + Nottingham Forest W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Nottingham Forest W attack 3.92 + Derby County W defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 3.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Derby County W scores more

15%

level

14%

Nottingham Forest W scores more

71%

Nottingham Forest W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nottingham Forest W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff