Derby County U19 3–1 Borussia Dortmund U19

Derby County U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia Dortmund U19

L. Sibley 90+5'

J. Brown 51'

E. Cashin 47'

R. Khadra 62'

2/11/2020

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsPride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Derby County U1969%

×Draw15%

Borussia Dortmund U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derby County U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

1.54

Derby County U19

3.25

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.54

Derby County U19 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

4.67

creates per match

1.74

1.33

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Derby County U19

4.67

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.74

allows per match

Derby County U19

1.33

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby County U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby County U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Derby County U19 or draw

84%

Derby County U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

85%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

31%

Winning margin

Derby County U19 wins by 2+

50%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Derby County U19 1+ goals

96%

Derby County U19 2+ goals

83%

Derby County U19 3+ goals

61%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

79%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

45%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Derby County U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby County U19 at home — creates 4.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby County U19 attack 4.67 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 3.25

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.74 + Derby County U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Derby County U19 scores more

69%

level

15%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

16%

Derby County U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Derby County U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

E. Cashin

49'

M. Whittaker

51'

J. Brown↳ M. Whittaker

62'

A. Bakir

62'

R. Khadra↳ Y. Moukoko

68'

70'

78'

78'

79'

C. Dixon← L. Thompson

83'

T. Wilson← J. Stretton

86'

88'

89'

90+3'

90+7'

90+5'

Derby

Borussia

1

Unbehaun

21

Schell

5

Ferjani

16

▼

Terzi

17

Göckan

11

Raschl

10

▼

Pherai

13

▼

Knauff

7

⚽

Khadra

18

A

Moukoko

9

▼

Bakir

1

Foster-Th

3

Buchanan

6

⚽

Cashin

11

Brown

8

⚽

Brown

5

Minkley

10

⚽

Sibley

4

▼

Thompson

7

A

Whittaker

9

▼

Stretton

2

Ebosele

Manager: J. Walker

79'▲C. Dixon←▼L. Thompson

83'▲T. Wilson←▼J. Stretton

Derby County U19 substitutes

15Dixon14Wilson16Bardell12Charles17Rogers18Matthews13Halwax

Manager: M. Skibbe

68'▲G. Gürpüz←▼A. Bakir

78'▲R. Hetemi←▼M. Pherai

78'▲J. Rauch←▼A. Knauff

89'▲M. Amedick←▼E. Terzi

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

28Gürpüz8Hetemi26Rauch6Amedick4Knoop22Klußmann23Schlüsselburg

UEFA Youth League: Derby County U19 3–1 Borussia Dortmund U19

Derby County U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 11, 2020.

Goals: E. Cashin (47'), J. Brown (51'), R. Khadra (62'), L. Sibley (90+5').

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.

Derby County U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Derby County U19 3–1 Borussia Dortmund U19