Derby County U18 vs Nottingham Forest U18 — League #695 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Derby County U1842%
Nottingham Forest U1835%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Derby County U18 creates 10% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 53 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Derby County U18 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Derby County U18 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches
Nottingham Forest U18 away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Derby County U18 attack 1.40 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.80
Nottingham Forest U18 attack 1.68 + Derby County U18 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Derby County U18 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Derby County U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsNottingham Forest U18
Manchester City U18
Blackburn Rovers U18
Middlesbrough U18
Newcastle United U18
Wolves U18
Manchester United U18Derby County U18
Liverpool U18
Stoke City U18
Everton U18
Sunderland U18
Burnley U18
Leeds United U18If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Derby County U18 host Nottingham Forest U18 on Saturday, 16 August 2025 at 10:00. The match is part of the League #695 2026/2027 season.
League #695: Derby County U18 0–2 Nottingham Forest U18
Nottingham Forest U18 beat Derby County U18 2-0 in League #695 on August 16, 2025.
Goals: K. Bradshaw (38'), J. Powell (63').
The match was played at Moor Farm Training Centre in Derby, Derbyshire.