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Derby Academie vs Bakaridjan — Première Division 2019

Derby Academie
Derby Academie
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
12/6/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Derby Academie30%
×Draw33%
Bakaridjan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby Academie
0.81
Bakaridjan
0.93

Bakaridjan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 93 away

creates per match

Derby Academie
0.77
Bakaridjan
1.00

allows per match

Derby Academie
0.85
Bakaridjan
0.86

finishing

Derby Academie+0.00on par
Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby Academie ↓

Bakaridjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Derby Academie or draw
63%
Derby Academie or Bakaridjan
67%
Draw or Bakaridjan
70%

Winning margin

Derby Academie wins by 2+
10%
Bakaridjan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Derby Academie 1+ goals
56%
Derby Academie 2+ goals
19%
Derby Academie 3+ goals
5%
Bakaridjan 1+ goals
61%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
24%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derby Academie (draw refunded)
45%
Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby Academie at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby Academie attack 0.77 + Bakaridjan defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.81

Bakaridjan attack 1.00 + Derby Academie defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby Academie scores more
30%
level
33%
Bakaridjan scores more
37%

Bakaridjan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derby Academie vs Bakaridjan

Bakaridjan beat Derby Academie 1-0 in Première Division on December 6, 2025.