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Deportivo Universitario vs Union Cocle — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Deportivo Universitario
Deportivo Universitario
Preview
01:30
Union Cocle
Union Cocle
8/18/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 4Estadio Universidad Latina
36%
Union Cocle
model favours
33%30%36%
1–1
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Deportivo Universitario33%
×Draw30%
Union Cocle36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Universitario
1.01
Union Cocle
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 8 away

creates per match

Deportivo Universitario
1.15
Union Cocle
0.88

allows per match

Deportivo Universitario
1.27
Union Cocle
0.88

finishing

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par
Union Cocle+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Universitario ↓

Union Cocle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Universitario or draw
64%
Deportivo Universitario or Union Cocle
70%
Draw or Union Cocle
67%

Winning margin

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+
13%
Union Cocle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals
8%
Union Cocle 1+ goals
66%
Union Cocle 2+ goals
29%
Union Cocle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)
48%
Union Cocle (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

Union Cocle away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.15 + Union Cocle defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Union Cocle attack 0.88 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Universitario scores more
33%
level
30%
Union Cocle scores more
36%

Union Cocle at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Union Cocle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Universitario
LLLWW
Cocle
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Universitario host Union Cocle

August 18, 2026: Deportivo Universitario take on Union Cocle in Liga Panameña de Fútbol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Universitario host Union Cocle at Estadio Universidad Latina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.