Deportivo Universitario 2–2 Tauro FC

Deportivo Universitario

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Tauro FC

J. Guevara 29'

S. Batchelor 25'

R. de León 85'

J. Vargas 71'

3/10/2024

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 8Estadio Universitario F.C.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Deportivo Universitario33%

×Draw28%

Tauro FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchTauro FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.24

Deportivo Universitario

1.11

Tauro FC

1.24

Tauro FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 139 away

1.15

creates per match

1.21

1.27

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.15

Tauro FC

1.21

allows per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.27

Tauro FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

Tauro FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Universitario ↓

Tauro FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Universitario or draw

61%

Deportivo Universitario or Tauro FC

72%

Draw or Tauro FC

67%

Winning margin

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+

13%

Tauro FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals

10%

Tauro FC 1+ goals

71%

Tauro FC 2+ goals

35%

Tauro FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)

46%

Tauro FC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

Tauro FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.15 + Tauro FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tauro FC attack 1.21 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Universitario scores more

33%

level

28%

Tauro FC scores more

39%

Tauro FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tauro FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

29'

45+2'

46'

46'

54'

58'

58'

61'

O. Hinestroza← D. Herbert

70'

E. Sarmiento← R. Botello

70'

J. Rodriguez← O. Valencia

71'

74'

75'

75'

80'

85'

89'

Deportivo

Tauro

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: J. Miller

61'▲O. Hinestroza←▼D. Herbert

70'▲E. Sarmiento←▼R. Botello

70'▲J. Rodriguez←▼O. Valencia

Deportivo Universitario substitutes

HinestrozaSarmientoRodriguezGómezGeneralEsquinaVásquezBerkeleyDeanWood

Manager: F. Baloy

46'▲O. Browne←▼J. Ospina

46'▲R. Gorday←▼M. Véliz

58'▲R. French←▼R. Agámez

75'▲H. Peralta←▼Á. Díaz

80'▲R. de León←▼Y. Díaz

Tauro FC substitutes

BrowneGordayFrenchPeraltaLeónHinojosaVillegasAndersonYearwood

Match Recap: Deportivo Universitario vs Tauro FC

Deportivo Universitario and Tauro FC drew 2-2 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on March 10, 2024.

Goals: S. Batchelor (25'), J. Guevara (29'), J. Vargas (71'), R. de León (85').

The match was played at Estadio Universitario F.C. in Penonomé.

Deportivo Universitario vs Tauro FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Universitario vs Tauro FC