Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Universitario vs Costa del Este — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Deportivo Universitario
Deportivo Universitario
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Costa del Este
Costa del Este
9/10/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 8Estadio Universitario F.C.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Deportivo Universitario36%
×Draw28%
Costa del Este35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Universitario
1.17
Costa del Este
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 111 away

creates per match

Deportivo Universitario
1.15
Costa del Este
1.02

allows per match

Deportivo Universitario
1.27
Costa del Este
1.18

finishing

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par
Costa del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Universitario ↓

Costa del Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Universitario or draw
65%
Deportivo Universitario or Costa del Este
72%
Draw or Costa del Este
64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+
15%
Costa del Este wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals
11%
Costa del Este 1+ goals
68%
Costa del Este 2+ goals
32%
Costa del Este 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)
51%
Costa del Este (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

Costa del Este away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.15 + Costa del Este defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Costa del Este attack 1.02 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Universitario scores more
36%
level
28%
Costa del Este scores more
35%

Deportivo Universitario at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Universitario vs Costa del Este

Costa del Este beat Deportivo Universitario 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario F.C. in Penonomé.