Deportivo Universitario 0–1 CD Arabe Unido

Deportivo Universitario

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CD Arabe Unido

Á. Sánchez 73'

11/9/2024

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - Play-offsEstadio Universitario F.C.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Deportivo Universitario36%

×Draw29%

CD Arabe Unido35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchCD Arabe Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.11

Deportivo Universitario

1.14

CD Arabe Unido

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 130 away

1.15

creates per match

0.95

1.27

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.15

CD Arabe Unido

0.95

allows per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.27

CD Arabe Unido

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

CD Arabe Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Universitario ↓

CD Arabe Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Universitario or draw

65%

Deportivo Universitario or CD Arabe Unido

71%

Draw or CD Arabe Unido

64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+

15%

CD Arabe Unido wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals

11%

CD Arabe Unido 1+ goals

67%

CD Arabe Unido 2+ goals

30%

CD Arabe Unido 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)

51%

CD Arabe Unido (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

CD Arabe Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.15 + CD Arabe Unido defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

CD Arabe Unido attack 0.95 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Universitario scores more

36%

level

29%

CD Arabe Unido scores more

35%

Deportivo Universitario at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

O. Valencia

45+4'

G. Herbert

45+4'

J. Tobon

63'

A. Edwards← J. Guevara

63'

Á. Sánchez← G. Herbert

63'

J. González← S. Moreno

71'

73'

75'

80'

80'

Ó. Villareal← M. Acosta

82'

J. Dickens← S. Murillo

90+5'

J. Sanchez

90+6'

P. Reynaldo

Deportivo

CD

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Á. Sánchez

63'▲A. Edwards←▼J. Guevara

75'▲R. Rangel←▼L. Cañate

80'▲E. Gómez←▼J. Simons

80'▲Ó. Villareal←▼M. Acosta

Deportivo Universitario substitutes

EdwardsRangelGómezVillarealMachacenOrtegaGilDeanEspinosaBatchelor

Manager: F. Perlo

63'▲Á. Sánchez←▼G. Herbert

63'▲J. González←▼S. Moreno

71'▲L. Triana←▼A. Arroyo

82'▲J. Dickens←▼S. Murillo

CD Arabe Unido substitutes

SánchezGonzálezTrianaDickensHerbertVargasCórdobaVásquezEmanuelGarcía

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Deportivo Universitario 0–1 CD Arabe Unido

CD Arabe Unido beat Deportivo Universitario 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on November 9, 2024.

Goals: Á. Sánchez (73').

The match was played at Estadio Universitario F.C. in Penonomé.

Deportivo Universitario vs CD Arabe Unido — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Deportivo Universitario 0–1 CD Arabe Unido