Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 Libertad Asuncion

Deportivo Tachira FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Libertad Asuncion

J. Hernández 31'

R. Santa Cruz 50'

5/8/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC43%

×Draw25%

Libertad Asuncion32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Tachira FCExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.26

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.50

Libertad Asuncion

1.26

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

1.57

creates per match

0.81

1.71

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.57

Libertad Asuncion

0.81

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.71

Libertad Asuncion

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw

68%

Deportivo Tachira FC or Libertad Asuncion

75%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

21%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

19%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

72%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

36%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

57%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.57 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.81 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

43%

level

25%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

32%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

J. Camargo

Deportivo Tachira FC · G

7.9

Match Events

26'

C. Robles

31'

J. Hernández↳ N. Hernández

35'

R. Villalba

46'

I. Franco← R. Villalba

50'

R. Santa Cruz↳ I. Franco

68'

A. Ríos← J. Hernández

68'

J. Castillo← G. Mendoza

68'

H. Martínez← B. Merlini

75'

G. Aguilar← R. Santa Cruz

82'

C. Calzadilla← C. Robles

82'

J. Vargas← N. Hernández

83'

I. Franco

87'

P. Camacho← J. Gutiérrez

90+2'

Á. Campuzano← H. Caballero

90+2'

W. Mendieta← L. Sanabria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoLibertad

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots18

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.74

4Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots18

3On Target4

6Off Target10

2Blocked4

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box10

Passing

37%Possession63%

312Total Passes559

239Accurate Passes473

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 Libertad Asuncion

Deportivo Tachira FC and Libertad Asuncion drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 8, 2024.

Goals: J. Hernández (31'), R. Santa Cruz (50').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.

Deportivo Tachira FC vs Libertad Asuncion — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 Libertad Asuncion