Deportivo Tachira FC 1–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC

Deportivo Tachira FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Estudiantes de Merida FC

3/22/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC54%

×Draw24%

Estudiantes de Merida FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Tachira FCExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes de Merida FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.96

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.69

Estudiantes de Merida FC

0.96

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 138 away

1.80

creates per match

1.19

0.73

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.80

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.19

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

0.73

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw

79%

Deportivo Tachira FC or Estudiantes de Merida FC

76%

Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC

46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

30%

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

50%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

24%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals

62%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals

25%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

72%

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

54%

level

24%

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more

21%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff