Deportivo Tachira FC 1–0 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Deportivo Tachira FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

9/30/2023

Primera División · Round 29Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC56%

×Draw25%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Tachira FCExpected goals in this matchCD Hermanos Colmenarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.85

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.64

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

0.85

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 93% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 64 away

1.80

creates per match

0.98

0.73

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.80

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

0.98

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

0.73

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw

81%

Deportivo Tachira FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

75%

Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

30%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

49%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

23%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

57%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

21%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

74%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.64

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

56%

level

25%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

19%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff