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Deportivo Tachira FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
CANC
21:00
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
4/26/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 12Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC56%
×Draw24%
Atletico Venezuela20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.67
Atletico Venezuela
0.88

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 90% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 60 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.80
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
0.73
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
80%
Deportivo Tachira FC or Atletico Venezuela
76%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
31%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
23%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
59%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
22%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
74%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
56%
level
24%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
20%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Tachira FC host Atletico Venezuela

April 26, 2020: Deportivo Tachira FC take on Atletico Venezuela in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Tachira FC host Atletico Venezuela at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.