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Deportivo Santani vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
4/19/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 3Estadio Juan José Vázquez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Deportivo Santani48%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Iteno27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Santani
1.50
Sportivo Iteno
1.05

Deportivo Santani creates 43% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 63 away

creates per match

Deportivo Santani
1.19
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Deportivo Santani
1.12
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw
73%
Deportivo Santani or Sportivo Iteno
74%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
24%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
19%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
65%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
28%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
64%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.19 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more
48%
level
26%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
27%

Deportivo Santani at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Santani vs Sportivo Iteno

Sportivo Iteno beat Deportivo Santani 1-0 in Division Intermedia on April 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juan José Vázquez in San Estanislao.