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Deportivo Santani vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
6/16/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 12Estadio Juan José Vázquez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Deportivo Santani43%
×Draw28%
Martin Ledesma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Santani
1.27
Martin Ledesma
1.00

Deportivo Santani creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 61 away

creates per match

Deportivo Santani
1.19
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Santani
1.12
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw
71%
Deportivo Santani or Martin Ledesma
72%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
19%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
14%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
63%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
26%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
59%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.19 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more
43%
level
28%
Martin Ledesma scores more
29%

Deportivo Santani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Santani vs Martin Ledesma

Deportivo Santani and Martin Ledesma drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan José Vázquez in San Estanislao.