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Deportivo Santani vs Guaraní de Trinidad — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
FT
3 – 1
Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
5/22/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 8Estadio Juan José Vázquez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Santani40%
×Draw28%
Guaraní de Trinidad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Santani
1.27
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09

Deportivo Santani creates 17% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 32 away

creates per match

Deportivo Santani
1.19
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.06

allows per match

Deportivo Santani
1.12
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.34

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par
Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw
68%
Deportivo Santani or Guaraní de Trinidad
72%
Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
18%
Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
14%
Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
66%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
30%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
56%
Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.19 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more
40%
level
28%
Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
32%

Deportivo Santani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Santani 3–1 Guaraní de Trinidad

Deportivo Santani beat Guaraní de Trinidad 3-1 in Division Intermedia on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan José Vázquez in San Estanislao.