Deportivo Santani 3–1 Club River Plate

Deportivo Santani

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Club River Plate

B. Barbas 86'

E. Villalba 26'

M. Gonzalez 9'

Unknown 90+3'

7/12/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Juan José Vázquez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Deportivo Santani40%

×Draw28%

Club River Plate32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo SantaniExpected goals in this matchClub River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.08

Deportivo Santani

1.23

Club River Plate

1.08

Deportivo Santani creates 14% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 47 away

1.19

creates per match

1.04

1.12

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Deportivo Santani

1.19

Club River Plate

1.04

allows per match

Deportivo Santani

1.12

Club River Plate

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

Club River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw

68%

Deportivo Santani or Club River Plate

72%

Draw or Club River Plate

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+

17%

Club River Plate wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Santani 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Santani 3+ goals

13%

Club River Plate 1+ goals

66%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

29%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)

55%

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.19 + Club River Plate defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Club River Plate attack 1.04 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more

40%

level

28%

Club River Plate scores more

32%

Deportivo Santani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Gonzalez

26'

E. Villalba

86'

B. Barbas

90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff