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Deportivo Santani vs 24 de Setiembre — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
24 de Setiembre
24 de Setiembre
5/27/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 10Estadio Juan José Vázquez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Santani47%
×Draw26%
24 de Setiembre27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Santani
1.50
24 de Setiembre
1.06

Deportivo Santani creates 42% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo Santani
1.19
24 de Setiembre
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Santani
1.12
24 de Setiembre
1.80

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par
24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

24 de Setiembre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw
73%
Deportivo Santani or 24 de Setiembre
74%
Draw or 24 de Setiembre
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
24%
24 de Setiembre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
19%
24 de Setiembre 1+ goals
65%
24 de Setiembre 2+ goals
29%
24 de Setiembre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
64%
24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

24 de Setiembre away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.19 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

24 de Setiembre attack 1.00 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more
47%
level
26%
24 de Setiembre scores more
27%

Deportivo Santani at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Santani 0–1 24 de Setiembre

24 de Setiembre beat Deportivo Santani 1-0 in Division Intermedia on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan José Vázquez in San Estanislao.