Deportivo Santani 2–2 12 de Octubre: Result & Stats

Deportivo Santani

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

12 de Octubre

8/26/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 24Estadio Juan José Vázquez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Santani47%

×Draw27%

12 de Octubre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo SantaniExpected goals in this match12 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.98

Deportivo Santani

1.41

12 de Octubre

0.98

Deportivo Santani creates 44% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

1.19

creates per match

0.83

1.12

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Deportivo Santani

1.19

12 de Octubre

0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Santani

1.12

12 de Octubre

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

12 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw

74%

Deportivo Santani or 12 de Octubre

73%

Draw or 12 de Octubre

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+

23%

12 de Octubre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Santani 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Santani 3+ goals

17%

12 de Octubre 1+ goals

62%

12 de Octubre 2+ goals

26%

12 de Octubre 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)

64%

12 de Octubre (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.19 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

12 de Octubre attack 0.83 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more

47%

level

27%

12 de Octubre scores more

26%

Deportivo Santani at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff