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Deportivo Sanarate vs Malacateco — Liga Nacional 2019

Deportivo Sanarate
Deportivo Sanarate
CANC
21:30
Malacateco
Malacateco
5/27/2020Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 19Estadio Municipal de Sanarate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Deportivo Sanarate49%
×Draw28%
Malacateco23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Sanarate
1.37
Malacateco
0.85

Deportivo Sanarate creates 61% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 145 away

creates per match

Deportivo Sanarate
1.11
Malacateco
0.78

allows per match

Deportivo Sanarate
0.92
Malacateco
1.62

finishing

Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par
Malacateco+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Sanarate ↓

Malacateco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Sanarate or draw
77%
Deportivo Sanarate or Malacateco
72%
Draw or Malacateco
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+
24%
Malacateco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals
16%
Malacateco 1+ goals
57%
Malacateco 2+ goals
21%
Malacateco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)
68%
Malacateco (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Sanarate at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Malacateco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.11 + Malacateco defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Malacateco attack 0.78 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Sanarate scores more
49%
level
28%
Malacateco scores more
23%

Deportivo Sanarate at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Sanarate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Sanarate host Malacateco

May 27, 2020: Deportivo Sanarate take on Malacateco in Liga Nacional. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Sanarate host Malacateco at Estadio Municipal de Sanarate.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.