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Deportivo Roca vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
G. Garavano 81'
11/29/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 16Estadio Luís Maiolino (General Roca, Provincia de Río Negro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Deportivo Roca44%
×Draw28%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Roca
1.28
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.95

Deportivo Roca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 83 away

creates per match

Deportivo Roca
1.25
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.82

allows per match

Deportivo Roca
1.08
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.31

finishing

Deportivo Roca+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Roca ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Roca or draw
72%
Deportivo Roca or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
72%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
20%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
14%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
61%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
25%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
61%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Roca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Roca attack 1.25 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.82 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Roca scores more
44%
level
28%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
28%

Deportivo Roca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Roca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'
G. Garavano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Roca 1 – 0 Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Deportivo Roca beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 29, 2018.

Goals: G. Garavano (81').

The match was played at Estadio Luís Maiolino (General Roca, Provincia de Río Negro).