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Deportivo Roca vs Belgrano Santa Rosa — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Belgrano Santa Rosa
Belgrano Santa Rosa
G. Aguirre 61'
J. Morán 34'
M. Germi 45+1'
9/25/2014Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 6Estadio Luís Maiolino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Roca53%
×Draw25%
Belgrano Santa Rosa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Roca
1.60
Belgrano Santa Rosa
0.94

Deportivo Roca creates 70% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Deportivo Roca
1.44
Belgrano Santa Rosa
0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Roca
1.13
Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.76

finishing

Deportivo Roca+0.00on par
Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Roca ↓

Belgrano Santa Rosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Roca or draw
78%
Deportivo Roca or Belgrano Santa Rosa
75%
Draw or Belgrano Santa Rosa
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
28%
Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
47%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
22%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals
61%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals
24%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
70%
Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Roca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Roca attack 1.44 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 0.76 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Roca scores more
53%
level
25%
Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more
22%

Deportivo Roca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Roca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
J. Morán
45+1'
M. Germi
61'
G. Aguirre

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Roca vs Belgrano Santa Rosa

Deportivo Roca beat Belgrano Santa Rosa 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 25, 2014.

Goals: J. Morán (34'), M. Germi (45+1'), G. Aguirre (61').

The match was played at Estadio Luís Maiolino in General Roca, Provincia de Río Negro.