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Deportivo Rincon vs Sol de Mayo — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Rincon
Deportivo Rincon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sol de Mayo
Sol de Mayo
5/18/2024Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 1 - 10Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Deportivo Rincon56%
×Draw28%
Sol de Mayo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Rincon
1.39
Sol de Mayo
0.61

Deportivo Rincon creates 128% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 112 away

creates per match

Deportivo Rincon
1.34
Sol de Mayo
0.62

allows per match

Deportivo Rincon
0.61
Sol de Mayo
1.44

finishing

Deportivo Rincon+0.00on par
Sol de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Rincon ↓

Sol de Mayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Rincon or draw
84%
Deportivo Rincon or Sol de Mayo
72%
Draw or Sol de Mayo
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Rincon wins by 2+
28%
Sol de Mayo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo Rincon 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Rincon 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Rincon 3+ goals
16%
Sol de Mayo 1+ goals
46%
Sol de Mayo 2+ goals
13%
Sol de Mayo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Rincon (draw refunded)
77%
Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Rincon at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.61 · 38 matches

Sol de Mayo away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Rincon attack 1.34 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sol de Mayo attack 0.62 + Deportivo Rincon defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Rincon scores more
56%
level
28%
Sol de Mayo scores more
16%

Deportivo Rincon at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Rincon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Rincon 2–0 Sol de Mayo

Deportivo Rincon beat Sol de Mayo 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros in Rincón de Los Sauces, Provincia del Neuquén.