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Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Barracas Central Res. — Reserve League 2022

Deportivo Riestra Res.
Deportivo Riestra Res.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central Res.
Barracas Central Res.
2/21/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Deportivo Riestra Res.53%
×Draw27%
Barracas Central Res.20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra Res.
1.46
Barracas Central Res.
0.78

Deportivo Riestra Res. creates 87% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 61 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra Res.
1.18
Barracas Central Res.
0.57

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra Res.
1.00
Barracas Central Res.
1.74

finishing

Deportivo Riestra Res.+0.00on par
Barracas Central Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra Res. ↓

Barracas Central Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra Res. or draw
80%
Deportivo Riestra Res. or Barracas Central Res.
73%
Draw or Barracas Central Res.
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra Res. wins by 2+
27%
Barracas Central Res. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra Res. 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Riestra Res. 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Riestra Res. 3+ goals
18%
Barracas Central Res. 1+ goals
54%
Barracas Central Res. 2+ goals
18%
Barracas Central Res. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra Res. (draw refunded)
73%
Barracas Central Res. (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra Res. at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

Barracas Central Res. away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra Res. attack 1.18 + Barracas Central Res. defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barracas Central Res. attack 0.57 + Deportivo Riestra Res. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Riestra Res. scores more
53%
level
27%
Barracas Central Res. scores more
20%

Deportivo Riestra Res. at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Riestra Res. 1 – 0 Barracas Central Res.

Deportivo Riestra Res. beat Barracas Central Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on February 21, 2024.