Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Banfield Res. — Reserve League 2022

Deportivo Riestra Res.
Deportivo Riestra Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Banfield Res.
Banfield Res.
8/7/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Deportivo Riestra Res.42%
×Draw29%
Banfield Res.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra Res.
1.22
Banfield Res.
0.95

Deportivo Riestra Res. creates 28% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 62 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra Res.
1.18
Banfield Res.
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra Res.
1.00
Banfield Res.
1.26

finishing

Deportivo Riestra Res.+0.00on par
Banfield Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra Res. ↓

Banfield Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra Res. or draw
71%
Deportivo Riestra Res. or Banfield Res.
71%
Draw or Banfield Res.
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra Res. wins by 2+
19%
Banfield Res. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra Res. 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Riestra Res. 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Riestra Res. 3+ goals
12%
Banfield Res. 1+ goals
61%
Banfield Res. 2+ goals
25%
Banfield Res. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra Res. (draw refunded)
60%
Banfield Res. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra Res. at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

Banfield Res. away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.26 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra Res. attack 1.18 + Banfield Res. defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Banfield Res. attack 0.89 + Deportivo Riestra Res. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Riestra Res. scores more
42%
level
29%
Banfield Res. scores more
29%

Deportivo Riestra Res. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Banfield Res.

Banfield Res. beat Deportivo Riestra Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on August 7, 2024.