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Deportivo Recoleta vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
8/6/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Complejo CARDIF 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta60%
×Draw22%
Martin Ledesma18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Recoleta
1.91
Martin Ledesma
0.95

Deportivo Recoleta creates 101% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 61 away

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta
2.47
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta
1.03
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw
82%
Deportivo Recoleta or Martin Ledesma
78%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
40%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
35%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
85%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
57%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
30%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
61%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
25%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
77%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 2.47 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.91

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more
60%
level
22%
Martin Ledesma scores more
18%

Deportivo Recoleta at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Martin Ledesma

Deportivo Recoleta beat Martin Ledesma 2-1 in Division Intermedia on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo CARDIF 2 in Luque.