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Deportivo Recoleta vs Deportivo Santani — Division Intermedia 2026

Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
R. Ortiz 83'
L. Gonzalez 42'
R. Acuna 12'
6/17/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 13Complejo CARDIF 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta56%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Santani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Recoleta
1.90
Deportivo Santani
1.08

Deportivo Recoleta creates 76% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta
2.47
Deportivo Santani
1.14

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta
1.03
Deportivo Santani
1.33

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par
Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

Deportivo Santani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw
79%
Deportivo Recoleta or Deportivo Santani
78%
Draw or Deportivo Santani
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
85%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
56%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
29%
Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
73%
Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 2.47 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Deportivo Santani attack 1.14 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more
56%
level
22%
Deportivo Santani scores more
21%

Deportivo Recoleta at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
R. Acuna
42'
L. Gonzalez
83'
R. Ortiz
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Deportivo Santani

Deportivo Recoleta beat Deportivo Santani 2-1 in Division Intermedia on June 17, 2023.

Goals: R. Acuna (12'), L. Gonzalez (42'), R. Ortiz (83').

The match was played at Complejo CARDIF 2 in Luque.