Deportivo Recoleta 0–0 Deportivo Cuenca

Deportivo Recoleta

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

4/29/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta55%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Cuenca14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo RecoletaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.46

Deportivo Recoleta

1.21

Deportivo Cuenca

0.46

Deportivo Recoleta creates 163% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

0.25

0.67

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta

0.67

Deportivo Cuenca

0.25

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta

0.67

Deportivo Cuenca

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw

86%

Deportivo Recoleta or Deportivo Cuenca

69%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

37%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

8%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

80%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 0.67 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.25 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

55%

level

31%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

14%

Deportivo Recoleta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

N. Ferreira

Deportivo Recoleta · G

8.2

Match Events

46'

E. Guevara← M. Piedra

46'

D. Gonzalez← L. Mancinelli

56'

H. Lopez← T. Vidal

56'

B. Ferreira← J. Noguera

57'

60'

63'

72'

72'

79'

79'

M. Klimowicz← J. Ordonez

81'

D. Mosquera← W. Baez

90+4'

Marcelo Cañete

90+4'

I. Mosquera← A. Lopez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoDeportivo

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots12

0.51Expected Goals (xG)0.50

5Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target4

7Off Target7

3Blocked1

3Inside Box7

10Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

465Total Passes255

392Accurate Passes183

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.20Goals Prevented0.20

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportivo Recoleta vs Deportivo Cuenca

Deportivo Recoleta and Deportivo Cuenca drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 29, 2026.

Deportivo Recoleta controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco.

Deportivo Recoleta vs Deportivo Cuenca — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Recoleta vs Deportivo Cuenca