Deportivo Recoleta 6–1 3 de Febrero: Result & Stats

Deportivo Recoleta

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

3 de Febrero

7/24/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 18Complejo CARDIF 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta58%

×Draw22%

3 de Febrero20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo RecoletaExpected goals in this match3 de Febrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.03

Deportivo Recoleta

1.90

3 de Febrero

1.03

Deportivo Recoleta creates 84% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 78 away

2.47

creates per match

1.03

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta

2.47

3 de Febrero

1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta

1.03

3 de Febrero

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

3 de Febrero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw

80%

Deportivo Recoleta or 3 de Febrero

78%

Draw or 3 de Febrero

42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

34%

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

85%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

56%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

29%

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

64%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

28%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

74%

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 2.47 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.90

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

58%

level

22%

3 de Febrero scores more

20%

Deportivo Recoleta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff