Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Recoleta vs 12 de Octubre — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
8/18/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 22Complejo CARDIF 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta63%
×Draw21%
12 de Octubre16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Recoleta
2.05
12 de Octubre
0.93

Deportivo Recoleta creates 120% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta
2.47
12 de Octubre
0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta
1.03
12 de Octubre
1.63

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par
12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

12 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw
84%
Deportivo Recoleta or 12 de Octubre
79%
Draw or 12 de Octubre
37%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
39%
12 de Octubre wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
87%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
61%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
33%
12 de Octubre 1+ goals
61%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
24%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
79%
12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 2.47 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.05

12 de Octubre attack 0.83 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more
63%
level
21%
12 de Octubre scores more
16%

Deportivo Recoleta at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Recoleta vs 12 de Octubre

Deportivo Recoleta beat 12 de Octubre 4-1 in Division Intermedia on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo CARDIF 2 in Luque.