Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Pereira W vs Real San Andrés W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pereira W
Deportivo Pereira W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real San Andrés W
Real San Andrés W
3/15/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 6Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Pereira W56%
×Draw22%
Real San Andrés W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira W
1.96
Real San Andrés W
1.14

Deportivo Pereira W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira W
1.19
Real San Andrés W
0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira W
1.52
Real San Andrés W
2.72

finishing

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par
Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira W ↓

Real San Andrés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira W or draw
78%
Deportivo Pereira W or Real San Andrés W
78%
Draw or Real San Andrés W
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+
33%
Real San Andrés W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals
86%
Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals
58%
Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals
31%
Real San Andrés W 1+ goals
68%
Real San Andrés W 2+ goals
32%
Real San Andrés W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)
72%
Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.19 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.96

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Pereira W scores more
56%
level
22%
Real San Andrés W scores more
22%

Deportivo Pereira W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Pereira W 2–1 Real San Andrés W

Deportivo Pereira W beat Real San Andrés W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on March 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.