Deportivo Pereira W 0–2 Deportivo Pasto W

Deportivo Pereira W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Pasto W

2/18/2024

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 1Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Pereira W46%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Pasto W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Pereira WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.09

Deportivo Pereira W

1.49

Deportivo Pasto W

1.09

Deportivo Pereira W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.19

creates per match

0.67

1.52

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira W

1.19

Deportivo Pasto W

0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira W

1.52

Deportivo Pasto W

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira W or draw

72%

Deportivo Pereira W or Deportivo Pasto W

74%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto W

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)

63%

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.19 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Pereira W scores more

46%

level

26%

Deportivo Pasto W scores more

28%

Deportivo Pereira W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff