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Deportivo Pereira W vs Alianza W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pereira W
Deportivo Pereira W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza W
Alianza W
3/24/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 5Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Pereira W45%
×Draw25%
Alianza W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira W
1.56
Alianza W
1.21

Deportivo Pereira W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira W
1.19
Alianza W
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira W
1.52
Alianza W
1.94

finishing

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par
Alianza W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira W ↓

Alianza W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira W or draw
70%
Deportivo Pereira W or Alianza W
75%
Draw or Alianza W
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+
23%
Alianza W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals
21%
Alianza W 1+ goals
70%
Alianza W 2+ goals
34%
Alianza W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)
61%
Alianza W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Alianza W away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.19 + Alianza W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.56

Alianza W attack 0.89 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Pereira W scores more
45%
level
25%
Alianza W scores more
30%

Deportivo Pereira W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira W vs Alianza W

Alianza W beat Deportivo Pereira W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.