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Deportivo Pereira vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
7/20/2022Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Deportivo Pereira49%
×Draw27%
Patriotas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.44
Patriotas
0.91

Deportivo Pereira creates 58% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 109 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.24
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.13
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
76%
Deportivo Pereira or Patriotas
73%
Draw or Patriotas
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
24%
Patriotas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
18%
Patriotas 1+ goals
60%
Patriotas 2+ goals
23%
Patriotas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
67%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.13 · 127 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.24 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
49%
level
27%
Patriotas scores more
24%

Deportivo Pereira at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportivo Pereira 2–0 Patriotas

Deportivo Pereira beat Patriotas 2-0 in Primera A on July 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.