Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
7/23/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Deportivo Pereira40%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.29
Independiente Medellin
1.15

Deportivo Pereira creates 12% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 185 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.24
Independiente Medellin
1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.13
Independiente Medellin
1.35

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
67%
Deportivo Pereira or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
18%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
14%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
68%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
32%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
55%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.13 · 127 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.24 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
40%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
33%

Deportivo Pereira at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Pereira and Independiente Medellin drew 1-1 in Primera A on July 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.