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Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereiraadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
L. Berrío 120+10' (pen)
J. Zuluaga 120+8' (pen)
M. Medina 120+6' (pen)
L. Castro 120+4' (pen)
C. Marrugo 120+9' (pen)
F. Pardo 120+7' (pen)
J. Hernández 120+5' (pen)
12/8/2022Primera APrimera A · Clausura - FinalEstadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Pereira33%
×Draw29%
Independiente Medellin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.04
Independiente Medellin
1.14

Independiente Medellin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.09
Independiente Medellin
0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.30
Independiente Medellin
0.98

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.36scores more
Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
62%
Deportivo Pereira or Independiente Medellin
71%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
67%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
13%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
9%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
68%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
32%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
46%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.09 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
33%
level
29%
Independiente Medellin scores more
38%

Independiente Medellin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. MosqueraIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · G
7.9

Match Events

28'
Diber Cambindo
38'
Juan Zuluaga
39'
Yulián Gómez
43'
Jhonny Vásquez
59'
C. Marrugo← V. Hernández
65'
D. Torres← A. Ricaurte
80'
Andres Correa
81'
M. Medina← Jhonny Vásquez
83'
J. Palacios← A. Correa
85'
J. Hernández← D. Cambindo
87'
Adrián Arregui
88'
Leonardo Castro
88'
Christian Marrugo
90+3'
H. Suárez← Y. Velásquez
120+1'
A. CadavidMissed penalty
120+2'
C. RamírezMissed penalty
120+3'
A. ArreguiMissed penalty
120+4'
L. CastroPenalty
120+5'
J. HernándezPenalty
120+6'
M. MedinaPenalty
120+7'
F. PardoPenalty
120+8'
J. ZuluagaPenalty
120+9'
C. MarrugoPenalty
120+10'
L. BerríoPenalty

Possession

65%Deportivo

Shots

20Deportivo

Pass accuracy

55%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoIndependiente
Overview
65%Possession35%
20Total Shots7
7Corners2
14Fouls5
Shots
20Total Shots7
7On Target1
9Off Target5
4Blocked1
6Inside Box4
14Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
502Total Passes280
425Accurate Passes194
85%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
14Fouls5
4Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Primera A: Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Pereira and Independiente Medellin drew 0-0 in Primera A on December 8, 2022.

Goals: L. Castro (120+4' pen), J. Hernández (120+5' pen), M. Medina (120+6' pen), F. Pardo (120+7' pen), J. Zuluaga (120+8' pen), C. Marrugo (120+9' pen), L. Berrío (120+10' pen).

Deportivo Pereira controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.