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Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
C. Ramírez 35' (pen)
L. Pons 80'
3/27/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Pereira33%
×Draw29%
Independiente Medellin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.04
Independiente Medellin
1.14

Independiente Medellin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.09
Independiente Medellin
0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.30
Independiente Medellin
0.98

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.36scores more
Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
62%
Deportivo Pereira or Independiente Medellin
71%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
67%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
13%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
9%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
68%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
32%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
46%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.09 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
33%
level
29%
Independiente Medellin scores more
38%

Independiente Medellin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. ArreguiIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · M
7.7

Match Events

21'
V. Moreno
33'
A. Cadavid
34'
A. Arregui
35'
C. RamírezPenalty
44'
J. Mosquera
45+3'
J. Mosquera
46'
J. Arboleda← J. Pineda
46'
J. Hernández← J. Méndez
56'
L. Pons← D. Cambindo
56'
A. Ricaurte← F. Pardo
59'
L. Pons
59'
H. Suarez
63'
H. Rojas← J. Sinisterra
75'
J. Valencia← B. León
80'
L. Pons↳ A. Ricaurte
85'
J. Cuesta← J. Hernández
87'
J. Zuluaga← J. Osorio
87'
A. Piedrahita← K. Lugo

Possession

50%Deportivo

Shots

9Deportivo

Pass accuracy

50%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoIndependiente
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots14
5Corners5
14Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots14
2On Target3
2Off Target7
5Blocked4
8Inside Box5
1Outside Box9
Passing
50%Possession50%
372Total Passes374
302Accurate Passes307
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Primera A: Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Pereira and Independiente Medellin drew 1-1 in Primera A on March 27, 2022.

Goals: C. Ramírez (35' pen), L. Pons (80').

Deportivo Pereira controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.