Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Deportes Tolima

Deportivo Pereira

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Tolima

2/14/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 4Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Deportivo Pereira35%

×Draw28%

Deportes Tolima37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.17

Deportivo Pereira

1.13

Deportes Tolima

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 196 away

1.24

creates per match

1.22

1.13

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.24

Deportes Tolima

1.22

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.13

Deportes Tolima

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

63%

Deportivo Pereira or Deportes Tolima

72%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

14%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

11%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

69%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

33%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

49%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.13 · 127 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.24 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

35%

level

28%

Deportes Tolima scores more

37%

Deportes Tolima at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff