Deportivo Pasto W 3–1 Real San Andrés W

Deportivo Pasto W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Real San Andrés W

5/17/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 16Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Pasto W58%

×Draw22%

Real San Andrés W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Pasto WExpected goals in this matchReal San Andrés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.04

Deportivo Pasto W

1.93

Real San Andrés W

1.04

Deportivo Pasto W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.13

creates per match

0.75

1.34

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto W

1.13

Real San Andrés W

0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto W

1.34

Real San Andrés W

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto W ↓

Real San Andrés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto W or draw

80%

Deportivo Pasto W or Real San Andrés W

78%

Draw or Real San Andrés W

42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+

34%

Real San Andrés W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals

85%

Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals

57%

Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals

30%

Real San Andrés W 1+ goals

65%

Real San Andrés W 2+ goals

28%

Real San Andrés W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)

74%

Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto W attack 1.13 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.93

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Pasto W scores more

58%

level

22%

Real San Andrés W scores more

20%

Deportivo Pasto W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pasto W vs Real San Andrés W

Deportivo Pasto W beat Real San Andrés W 3-1 in Liga Femenina on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in San Juan de Pasto.

Deportivo Pasto W vs Real San Andrés W — Liga Femenina 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Pasto W vs Real San Andrés W