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Deportivo Pasto W vs Fortaleza W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fortaleza W
Fortaleza W
5/10/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 10Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Pasto W49%
×Draw26%
Fortaleza W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto W
1.51
Fortaleza W
1.01

Deportivo Pasto W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.13
Fortaleza W
0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.34
Fortaleza W
1.90

finishing

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par
Fortaleza W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto W ↓

Fortaleza W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto W or draw
75%
Deportivo Pasto W or Fortaleza W
74%
Draw or Fortaleza W
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
25%
Fortaleza W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
19%
Fortaleza W 1+ goals
64%
Fortaleza W 2+ goals
27%
Fortaleza W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
66%
Fortaleza W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Fortaleza W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto W attack 1.13 + Fortaleza W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.51

Fortaleza W attack 0.67 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Pasto W scores more
49%
level
26%
Fortaleza W scores more
25%

Deportivo Pasto W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Pasto W 1–2 Fortaleza W

Fortaleza W beat Deportivo Pasto W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in Pasto.