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Deportivo Pasto W vs Deportivo Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
FT
1 – 2
Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
11/11/2020Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 3Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Pasto W28%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cali W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto W
1.06
Deportivo Cali W
1.43

Deportivo Cali W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 61 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.13
Deportivo Cali W
1.52

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.34
Deportivo Cali W
1.00

finishing

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto W ↓

Deportivo Cali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto W or draw
55%
Deportivo Pasto W or Deportivo Cali W
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cali W
72%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
11%
Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
38%
Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Deportivo Cali W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto W attack 1.13 + Deportivo Cali W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.52 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Pasto W scores more
28%
level
27%
Deportivo Cali W scores more
45%

Deportivo Cali W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Pasto W 1–2 Deportivo Cali W

Deportivo Cali W beat Deportivo Pasto W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in San Juan de Pasto.