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Deportivo Pasto W vs Atlético Nacional W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Nacional W
Atlético Nacional W
4/6/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 6Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Pasto W29%
×Draw28%
Atlético Nacional W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto W
1.04
Atlético Nacional W
1.33

Atlético Nacional W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 56 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.13
Atlético Nacional W
1.32

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.34
Atlético Nacional W
0.96

finishing

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par
Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto W ↓

Atlético Nacional W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto W or draw
57%
Deportivo Pasto W or Atlético Nacional W
72%
Draw or Atlético Nacional W
71%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
40%
Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Atlético Nacional W away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto W attack 1.13 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.32 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Pasto W scores more
29%
level
28%
Atlético Nacional W scores more
43%

Atlético Nacional W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pasto W vs Atlético Nacional W

Deportivo Pasto W and Atlético Nacional W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in San Juan de Pasto.