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Deportivo Pasto vs Huila — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Huila
Huila
8/20/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 6Estadio Municipal de Ipiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Deportivo Pasto52%
×Draw29%
Huila20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.31
Huila
0.69

Deportivo Pasto creates 90% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 70 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.26
Huila
0.53

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
0.85
Huila
1.36

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
80%
Deportivo Pasto or Huila
71%
Draw or Huila
48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
24%
Huila wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
14%
Huila 1+ goals
50%
Huila 2+ goals
15%
Huila 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
72%
Huila (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Huila attack 0.53 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
52%
level
29%
Huila scores more
20%

Deportivo Pasto at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportivo Pasto 4–0 Huila

Deportivo Pasto beat Huila 4-0 in Primera A on August 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipiales in Ipiales.