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Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
Preview
01:15
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
8/10/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Departamental Libertad
Big match
48%
Deportivo Pasto
model favours
48%26%25%

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Pasto48%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Cali25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.47
Deportivo Cali
0.98

Deportivo Pasto creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 47 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.56
Deportivo Cali
0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.00
Deportivo Cali
1.38

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
75%
Deportivo Pasto or Deportivo Cali
74%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.56 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Deportivo Cali attack 0.96 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
48%
level
26%
Deportivo Cali scores more
25%

Deportivo Pasto at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Deportivo Pasto
Balanced
Deportivo Cali
Balanced
46%PossessionBiggest gap50%
80%Pass accuracy78%
12.1Shots11.7
1.08xG1.10
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Deportivo Pasto
1
Draws
2
Deportivo Cali
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
0–31–21–12–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pasto
LLLLW
Cali
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Pasto host Deportivo Cali

August 10, 2026: Deportivo Pasto take on Deportivo Cali in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Pasto host Deportivo Cali at Estadio Departamental Libertad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.