Deportivo Cali 2–1 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Pasto

A. Estupinan 20'

A. Hurtado 16' (pen)

J. Mendez 88'

9/14/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Cali43%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pasto28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.97

Deportivo Cali

1.27

Deportivo Pasto

0.97

Deportivo Cali creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

1.13

creates per match

0.91

1.02

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.13

Deportivo Pasto

0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

1.02

Deportivo Pasto

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

72%

Deportivo Cali or Deportivo Pasto

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

60%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 48 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.13 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.91 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

43%

level

28%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

28%

Deportivo Cali at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Hurtado

Deportivo Cali · M

8.9

Match Events

16'

A. HurtadoPenalty

20'

A. Estupinan↳ A. Hurtado

23'

Mauricio Castaño

32'

Yoshan Valois

34'

David Camacho

46'

J. Mendez← F. Jaramillo

46'

F. Bone← D. Camacho

49'

Yani Quintero

52'

Johan MartínezPenalty cancelled

59'

Freddy Espinal

61'

Andrey Estupiñán

67'

J. Bernal← F. Espinal

75'

Y. Gordillo← A. Colorado

75'

P. Preciado← J. Valencia

79'

Yani Quintero

79'

Yani Quintero

80'

M. Orozco← J. Aponza

84'

W. F. Ordonez← F. Villa

87'

C. Graciano← A. Estupinan

87'

Luis Orejuela← A. Hurtado

88'

F. Mimbacas← J. Martinez

88'

J. Mendez↳ J. Rios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoDeportivo

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots11

7Corners2

17Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target2

5Off Target6

3Blocked3

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

395Total Passes304

327Accurate Passes245

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0