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Deportivo Pasto vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
11/14/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Deportivo Pasto45%
×Draw29%
Bucaramanga26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.23
Bucaramanga
0.85

Deportivo Pasto creates 45% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 168 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.26
Bucaramanga
0.86

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
0.85
Bucaramanga
1.20

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
74%
Deportivo Pasto or Bucaramanga
71%
Draw or Bucaramanga
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
20%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
13%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
57%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
21%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
64%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.20 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Bucaramanga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bucaramanga attack 0.86 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
45%
level
29%
Bucaramanga scores more
26%

Deportivo Pasto at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportivo Pasto 3–0 Bucaramanga

Deportivo Pasto beat Bucaramanga 3-0 in Primera A on November 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in Pasto.