Deportivo Paraguayo vs Juventud Unida

Deportivo Paraguayo

Preview

12:30

Juventud Unida

8/26/2026

Primera C · Round 25

Big match

39%

Juventud Unida

model favours

29%32%39%

0–1

likely score

72%

under 2.5 goals

36%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Deportivo Paraguayo29%

×Draw32%

Juventud Unida39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo ParaguayoExpected goals in this matchJuventud Unida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.02

Deportivo Paraguayo

0.83

Juventud Unida

1.02

Juventud Unida creates 23% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

0.57

creates per match

0.76

1.28

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportivo Paraguayo

0.57

Juventud Unida

0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Paraguayo

1.28

Juventud Unida

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Paraguayo+0.00on par

Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Paraguayo ↓

Juventud Unida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Paraguayo or draw

61%

Deportivo Paraguayo or Juventud Unida

68%

Draw or Juventud Unida

71%

Winning margin

Deportivo Paraguayo wins by 2+

9%

Juventud Unida wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Paraguayo 1+ goals

56%

Deportivo Paraguayo 2+ goals

20%

Deportivo Paraguayo 3+ goals

5%

Juventud Unida 1+ goals

64%

Juventud Unida 2+ goals

27%

Juventud Unida 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Paraguayo (draw refunded)

42%

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Paraguayo at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Paraguayo attack 0.57 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Deportivo Paraguayo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Paraguayo scores more

29%

level

32%

Juventud Unida scores more

39%

Juventud Unida at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventud Unida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Paraguayo

LDLDD

Unida

DLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff